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Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on stocks. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
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Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • NOTABLE TICKERS REMOVED DUE TO STOCKS AUTO MOD
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
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Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead stocks.
submitted by bigbear0083 to stocks [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Saturday morning to all of you here on smallstreetbets. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead smallstreetbets.
submitted by bigbear0083 to smallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Options and Actions

When you start a skill you will have no understanding of the concepts discussed by those who are good at the skill. You will also quickly discover that any skill you are trying to pick up is far more complicated than you expected. And since translation is difficult across modules you will experience this frustration every single time you learn a new skill, even if you possess an understanding of the concepts in another skill.
In order to properly understand this you want to look at options and open to a person to alter the performance of the skill, and try to understand how people might alter their actions to experiment with these options.
Let us take tennis a tennis serve as an example.
What options are there?
Well you can't hit a serve without the racket hitting the ball with the face. You can hit it with the side of the racket or the handle but it isn't optimal. So in this case you will note a fixed rule for a serve (to hit with the face). Now in order to hit a ball with the face of the racket you have options.
1) Stance (body rotation)
2) Alignment (hip position)
3) Turning (shoulder position)
4) Extension (of the arm)
5) Rotation (of the elbow)
6) Twist (of the wrist)
7) Grip (of the fingers)
With this we already have a lot of sub options for how to hit the ball.
Stance:
- Backwards
- Forwards
- Compensatory angle (for other rotations)
- Fixed angle (set as a standard)
- Moving
- Run up or stationary
You could theoretically attempt to serve the ball like one throws a javelin with a run up, or with a spin like a shotput or hammer throw. You could move laterally across court, you could move forwards to the net (or backwards), or you could move vertically (or duck).
You could do all of this backwards, while ducking, in the air, starting at a fixed angle, compensating for other motions, or you could do it forwards. So how then do you pick the optimum stance?
This is part of how you turn initial options into LOAD. You will note the complicated logistics of each alteration on each other part of the body. But let us not stop here. First let us assume we will find the optimum at some point and not worry too much.
The options of a skill are designated by the limits of what you are using NOT what is optimal to use. They are simply OPTIONS, and they can be investigated, but most of the time people will start somewhere seemingly obvious and slowly expand their awareness of options from there, never truly understanding every option possible.
Skill is NOT the optimisation of all possible OPTIONS, but it is possible to locate a near optimal set of options via extensive analysis. Maximising for the potential applications of each and triangulating which options have probable use and which don't, eventually getting a dominant set of options.
What we do when we gain a skill is first assume what these dominant options are. These dominant options serve as one of the first ways we bear the load of a skill. By isolating the option base down to a simpler set of options we can then investigate more of the sub-options and combinations between options. (this is not the first thing we do to gain skill however, note that motivation to pursue the skill is first, or you will not investigate options with any consistency or determination)
Finding the dominant options sets up a theme for the skill that it will always follow.
ACTIONS are then the choices made to alter the assumption of what option or combination of options occupy priority. This goes many layers deep and crosses from subtle to the obvious. So a finger motion, or grip change may alter the stance angle, which may in turn impact alignment of the hips and the extension of the arm, then rotational timing. These actions are like shots in the dark, because they can no longer be isolated into exact combinations of options. They are attempting to use options with flexibility and are elastic.
In a sense, the action causes the loss of the ROOT cause of a result. And suggests shoots or branches that stem from this root, now may no longer rely on the initial root. Much like how a cat in free fall can reorient its body to land on its feet. It is independent movement from the ground (often used as the root). This is the ACTION.
Now that we know what options and actions are, lets move onto understanding how they make skill acquisition different every single time.
Once a person understands enough of the options available to them they set a dominant root of options, and they start to investigate actions that stem from these roots looking for useful branches. They do this in order to get a starting FOUNDATION for the skill. In relatively simple skills this will lead to optimisation quickly, but the more options and actions are complicated and non-obvious, the more a skill needs to "evolve". So for example, chess is more complicated than checkers and went through evolution. It started with tactical ideas, then the romantic era of improved aesthetics, then the era of solidifying play with pawn structures, then modern chess, and finally hyper-modernism, and perhaps now with the advent of AI a post-hyper-modernism..
While with checkers, the rules create a limited set of options, and while these are not immediately obvious to solve for, they do not require evolution to reach the optimum.
All skills therefore have a rate of evolution that sets up the likelihood that it is currently in its optimum state and that the dominant options and actions will change. But it is within human nature to want to upset this paradigm. Wanting to reach the optimum immediately, find short cuts, or to "one up" the competition. This can lead to them reverting to previous evolutions, or simply rediscovering that certain portions were achievable without evolution.
Therefor, all skills operate on a platform of dominant options, and going against this may have benefits in discovering new actions, but only when evolution is still a possibility. The skill must be complex enough, and if it is, actions will become possible. This is also true of technology. If technology or biology changes, it will alter the set of options and actions you have.
Further, if technology or biology is a variable, the potential evolution is higher than if it merely can evolve alone. So chess can evolve further with ai, but also it will evolve further if neural links in the brain to computers allow a bionic improvement in mental analysis functions of the brain.
Extending from this understanding, it is also true that people change biologically as they gain a skill. Their capacity to handle load increases. Either through fitness regimes, or through drills that coordinate the mind. But even further than this physiological changes occur as a person gains skill and this opens up insight and intuition as well as actual physical and mental options that were not available before.
So in order to understand skill we have to separate these ideas into different horizons. The initial horizon can analyse first options and first actions, but once dominant structures are established and actions better understood a certain elastic capability evolves to use these ideas with pattern recognition (pattern analysis rather than direct). After pattern analysis you then have the change of physiology and mental structures, so rhythm in a sports athlete, muscle memory, change in instincts and intuition, which then changes these patterns to suit the new options and actions. And then further horizons once a local maximum is reached but then strategically overcome by other means.
These horizons mean that, some skill knowledge is not accessible until enough iterations create dominant features and changes. As they only appear later. These however ARE NOT improvements in dominant option or action structures. They are just a broadening of specific option and action structures in the local area.
So this is all a big factor in why you can't just translate your better skill in one area into another.
1) the options and actions differ
2) evolution is not always obvious
3) horizons alter the effective reach you have of investigating options and actions
The skill components can only translate when dependent option and action structures are present, and often this required process leaves translation less useful or efficient. However, if biological changes have occurred to your body, or mind, these can be leveraged to accelerate the emergence of these traits in similar skills, but it must be carefully observed, drilled, and nutured, so it can adjust to the new context.
Why?
Load.
Load will push in on ANY new skill being acquired, this is not simple informational load. But translational load from the module. Because every module has a kind of set of patterns that are VERY VERY FRAGILE. If these patterns are disturbed enough, a rejection occurs. Similar to building a house on top of a telephone pole, it will shatter if too top heavy and structures below do not support it. These "sheer forces" of a skill come from the horizon transitions. Probably because action improvements are dependent on previous horizons establishing a stable structure, not just the biological change itself. So you have to account for the "signatures" of the module you are operating in.
(this leads to more complication, because the more you are sensitive to signatures, the more you realise how modules influence each other, which brings in more variables... but for now we will ignore this)
With this understanding we can understand that SIGNATURE ACTIONS AND OPTIONS are the most important to the support of biological changes. And skill acquisition can be accelerated in this manner. NOT through translation of concepts from one skill module to another. The focus is on signatures not transfers.
The option and action of a skill at first should be analysed for the best signature for stability, then the next horizon should be prepared for, and this will introduce new actions and options, and then further development will change body, mind, and skill integration into the biology, which again opens up even more actions and options.

The example here is tennis, but it works with computer programming just as well.
The options of a program resort back to mathematics and these illustrate how binary systems can be used via understandings of lambda. You then have options in the hardware which were picked (having firmware, a bios, etc). The machine code, etc etc. And these lead to actions based off the dominant options pursued.
Now, computing is actually a candidate for complex evolution. So it very likely isn't at its optimum evolution in terms of its dominant structures, but it has signatures that follow into different horizons leading to new technologies and new languages, which then lead to an evolution in computational and language technology.
But, these ideas are present.
Any relatively new skill module, with high variability in its underlying structures, and high complexity, will not find its optimum evolution easily. And it will seem confusing. However, in order to stabilise your understanding of what is going on and why it is important to simplify down first to options and actions, as these are what we usually alter to create highly sophisticated structures that inform us on how we can better do a skill.
It is important not to underestimate the complexity of this in different contexts and this is key in skill acquisition. It is the reason you will not learn a perfect tennis serve via instructions from a good coach from day one. Even if very athletic and even if you know composite actions through other skills that approximate each action. One needs to consider the horizon alterations and account for the signature stability of the new set up of those composites.
If you are learning a skill don't expect direct analysis to be the pathway to its acquisition. But do expect action and option to be what is altered, and that this will expand the skill rather significantly in directions you might not initially have any access to. This inflationary barrier is a real thing, and cannot be cut out of the considerations you make.
submitted by Serpente-Azul to The_2nd_Plane [link] [comments]

Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020

Good Friday evening to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead.
Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning August 17th, 2020.

Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source)

Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February.
In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday.
Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
“The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways [market] action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.”
Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. 19.
Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved.
“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
“What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.”

It’s the economy

Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. Democrats have sought a $3 trillion spending package, and Republicans in the Senate offered a $1 trillion package. They could not reach a compromise, including on a $600 weekly payment to individuals on unemployment which expired July 31.
President Donald Trump has tried to fill the gap with executive orders to provide extra benefits to those on unemployment, but the $300 federal payment and $100 from states may take some time to reach individuals, as the processing varies by state. He has also issued an order instructing the Treasury to temporarily defer collection of payroll taxes from individuals making up to $104,000.
“I think in August and September, there will be a lot of Ws, if there’s not more help here,” said Zandi, referring to an economic recovery that retrenches from a V shape before heading higher again. “It’s clearly perplexing. It may take the stock market to say we’re not going to get what we expect, and sell off and light a fire.”
Zandi said it could come to a situation like 2008, where the stock market sold off sharply before Congress would agree to a program that helped financial companies.
“We need a TARP moment to get these guys to help. Maybe if the claims tick higher and the August employment numbers are soft, given the president is focused on the stock market, that might be what it takes to get them back to the table in earnest,” he said, referring to the Troubled Asset Relief Program that helped rescue banks during the financial crisis.
He ultimately expects a package of about $1.5 trillion to be approved in September.
The lack of funding for state and local governments could result in more layoffs, as they struggle with their current 2021 budgets, Zandi said. Already 1.3 million public sector jobs have been lost since February, and there will be more layoffs and more programs and projects cancelled. The impact will hit contractors and other businesses that provide services to local governments.
“The multipliers on state and local government are among the highest of any form of support, so if you don’t provide it, it’s going to ripple through the economy pretty fast,” he said.
Economists expect to see a softening in consumer spending in August with the more than 28 million Americans on unemployment benefits as of mid-July no longer receiving any supplemental pay.
“The real irony is things are shaping up that September is going to be a bad month, and that’s going to show up in all the data in October,” Zandi said. “They are really taking a chance on this election by not acting.”

This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL S&P TREE MAP FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Indices for this past week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR INDICES FOR THE PAST WEEK!)

Major Futures Markets as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE MAJOR FUTURES INDICES AS OF FRIDAY!)

Economic Calendar for the Week Ahead:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL ECONOMIC CALENDAR FOR THE WEEK AHEAD!)

Percentage Changes for the Major Indices, WTD, MTD, QTD, YTD as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

S&P Sectors for the Past Week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Major Indices Pullback/Correction Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!

Major Indices Rally Levels as of Friday's close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Here are the upcoming IPO's for this week:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Friday's Stock Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades:

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #1!)
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART LINK #2!)

4 Charts That Will Amaze You

The S&P 500 Index is a few points away from a new all-time high, completing one of the fastest recoveries from a bear market ever. But this will also seal the deal on the shortest bear market ever. Remember, the S&P 500 Index lost 20% from an all-time high in only 16 trading days back in February and March, so it makes sense that this recovery could be one of the fastest ever.
From the lows on March 23, the S&P 500 has now added more than 50%. Many have been calling this a bear market rally for months, while we have been in the camp this is something more. It’s easy to see why this rally is different based on where it stands versus other bear market rallies:
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
They say the stock market is the only place where things go on sale, yet everyone runs out of the store screaming. We absolutely saw that back in March and now with stocks near new highs, many have missed this record run. Here we show how stocks have been usually higher a year or two after corrections.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
After a historic drop in March, the S&P 500 has closed higher in April, May, June, and July. This rare event has happened only 11 other times, with stocks gaining the final five months of the year a very impressive 10 times. Only 2018 and the nearly 20% collapse in December saw a loss those final five months.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
As shown in the LPL Chart of the Day, this bear market will go down as the fastest ever, at just over one month. The recovery back to new highs will be five months if we get there by August 23, making this one of the fastest recoveries ever. Not surprisingly, it usually takes longer for bear markets in a recession to recover; only adding to the impressiveness of this rally.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
“It normally takes 30 months for bear markets during a recession to recover their losses, which makes this recovery all the more amazing,” said LPL Financial Chief Market Strateigst Ryan Detrick.. “Then again, there has been nothing normal about this recession, so maybe we shouldn’t be shocked about yet another record going down in 2020.”

When a Few Basis Points Packs a Punch

US Treasury yields have been on the rise this week with the 10-year yield rising 13 basis points (bps) from 0.56% up to 0.69% after getting as high as 0.72% on Thursday. A 13 bps move higher in interest rates may not seem like a whole lot, but with rates already at such low levels, a small move can have a pretty big impact on the prices of longer-term maturities.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Starting with longer-term US Treasuries, TLT, which measures the performance of maturities greater than 20 years, has declined 3.5% this week. Now, for a growth stock, 3.5% is par for the course, but that kind of move in the Treasury market is no small thing. The latest pullback for TLT also coincides with another failed attempt by the ETF to trade and stay above $170 for more than a day.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
The further out the maturity window you go in the fixed income market, the bigger the impact of the move higher in interest rates. The Republic of Austria issued a 100-year bond in 2017, and its movements exemplify the wild moves that small changes in interest rates (from a low base) can have on prices. Just this week, the Austrian 100-year was down over 5%, which is a painful move no matter what type of asset class you are talking about. This week's move, though, was nothing compared to the stomach-churning swings from earlier this year. When Covid was first hitting the fan, the 100-year rallied 57% in the span of less than two months. That kind of move usually occurs over years rather than days, but in less than a third of that time, all those gains disintegrated in a two-and-a-half week span from early to late March. Easy come, easy go. Ironically enough, despite all the big up and down moves in this bond over the last year, as we type this, the bond's price is the same now as it was on this same day last year.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Retail Sales Rock to New Highs

At the headline level, July’s Retail Sales report disappointed as the reading missed expectations by nearly a full percentage point. Just as soon as the report was released, we saw a number of stories pounce on the disappointment as a sign that the economy was losing steam. Looked at in more detail, though, the July report wasn’t all that bad. While the headline reading rose less than expected (1.2% vs 2.1%), Ex Autos and Ex Autos and Gas, the results were much better than expected. Not only that, but June’s original readings were all revised higher by around a full percentage point.
Besides the fact that this month’s report was better underneath the surface and June’s reading was revised higher, it was also notable as the seasonally-adjusted annualized rate of sales in July hit a new record high. After the last record high back in January, only five months passed until American consumers were back to their pre-Covid spending ways. For the sake of comparison, back during the Financial Crisis, 40 months passed between the original high in Retail Sales in November 2007 and the next record high in April 2011. 5 months versus 40? Never underestimate the power of the US consumer!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the monthly pace of retail sales is back at all-time highs, the characteristics behind the total level of sales have changed markedly in the post COVID world. In our just released B.I.G. Tips report we looked at these changing dynamics to highlight the groups that have been the biggest winners and losers from the shifts.

100 Days of Gains

Today marked 100 trading days since the Nasdaq 100's March 20th COVID Crash closing low. Below is a chart showing the rolling 100-trading day percentage change of the Nasdaq 100 since 1985. The 59.8% gain over the last 100 trading days ranks as the 3rd strongest run on record. The only two stronger 100-day rallies ended in January 1999 and March 2000.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
While the Nasdaq 100 bottomed on Friday, March 20th, the S&P 500 bottomed the following Monday (3/23). This means tomorrow will mark 100 trading days since the S&P 500's COVID Crash closing low. Right now the rolling 100-day percentage change for the S&P 500 sits at +46.7%. But if the S&P manages to trade at current levels tomorrow, the 100-day gain will jump above 50%. It has been 87 years (1933) since we've seen a 100-day gain of more than 50%!
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

B.I.G. Tips - New Highs In Sight

Whether you want to look at it from the perspective of closing prices or intraday levels, the S&P 500 is doing what just about everybody thought would be impossible less than five months ago - approaching record highs. Relative to its closing high of 3,386.15, the S&P 500 is just 0.27% lower, while it's within half of a percent from its record intraday high of 3,393.52. Through today, the S&P 500 has gone 120 trading days without a record high, and as shown in the chart below, the current streak is barely even visible when viewed in the perspective of all streaks since 1928. Even if we zoom in on just the last five years, the current streak of 120 trading days only ranks as the fourth-longest streak without a new high.
While the S&P 500's 120-trading day streak without a new high isn't extreme by historical standards, the turnaround off the lows has been extraordinary. In the S&P 500's history, there have been ten prior declines of at least 20% from a record closing high. Of those ten prior periods, the shortest gap between the original record high and the next one was 309 trading days, and the shortest gap between highs that had a pullback of at least 30% was 484 tradings days (or more than four times the current gap of 120 trading days). For all ten streaks without a record high, the median drought was 680 trading days.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)
Whenever the S&P 500 does take out its 2/19 high, the question is whether the new high represents a breakout where the S&P 500 keeps rallying into evergreen territory, or does it run out of gas after finally reaching a new milestone? To shed some light on this question, we looked at the S&P 500's performance following each prior streak of similar duration without a new high.

Rocket Reversals

Over the last few days, we've been seeing a moderate rotation in the market as red-hot growth stocks sell-off and investors shift into other areas of the market that have been lagging. To highlight this, the table below highlights 24 companies in the Russell 3,000 with market caps of more than $1 billion that traded at a 52-week high within the last month but are currently down more than 20% from that high. The vast majority of these stocks are names that investors haven't been able to get enough of in 2020 but now appear to have had their fill.
Topping the list of these reversals is Eastman Kodak (KODK). On 7/29, the stock surged to a 52-week high of $60.00 after being awarded a questionable government contract to domestically produce components for prescription drugs. With the SEC and government agency that originally awarded the contract now looking into stock option awards at the company just before it was announced, the stock has pulled back sharply and is now down over 80% from its high less than two weeks ago.
While KODK is more of a unique example, other names on the list are primarily growth or health care stocks that have benefited from the COVID outbreak. However, now that signs suggest the summer wave in the south has crested, investors appear to be taking some profits. Shares of Vaxart (VXRT) hit a high of $17.49 on July 14th but have since lost nearly half of their value and trade back in the single-digits. Additionally, Bloom Energy (BE), 1Life Healthcare (ONEM), and Bioxcel Therapeutics (BTAI) have all lost more than a third of their value.
In terms of market cap, most of the names listed are on the small side, but Tesla (TSLA) is a notable exception as it is now just over 20% below its 52-week high on 7/13. Other relatively large companies on the list include Moderna (MRNA), Citrix Systems (CTXS), Teladoc (TDOC), and Livongo (LVGO). TDOC and LVGO both hit all-time highs last week but after announcing a mostly stock merger last Wednesday, both have lost nearly a quarter of their value.
While all of the stocks listed below have seen sharp pullbacks in the last several days, a little perspective is in order. Of the 24 names listed, the average YTD change even after the declines has been a gain of 219.7% (median: +94.6%). Only two of the stocks shown (New Relic- NEWR and Sonos- SONO) are down YTD, and half of them have at least doubled and in many cases much more.
(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: Stock Market Analysis Video for Week Ending August 14th, 2020

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)

STOCK MARKET VIDEO: ShadowTrader Video Weekly 8.16.20

([CLICK HERE FOR THE YOUTUBE VIDEO!]())
(VIDEO NOT YET POSTED!)
Here are the most notable companies (tickers) reporting earnings in this upcoming trading week ahead-
  • $WMT
  • $NVDA
  • $BABA
  • $JD
  • $HD
  • $LOW
  • $TGT
  • $SE
  • $NIU
  • $BJ
  • $AAP
  • $DLPN
  • $TJX
  • $ADI
  • $DE
  • $FL
  • $KSS
  • $DQ
  • $PDD
  • $GDS
  • $ECC
  • $BEST
  • $CTK
  • $EL
  • $VIPS
  • $SNPS
  • $A
  • $ROST
  • $QIWI
  • $LB
  • $LX
  • $AMCR
  • $CMCM
  • $LZB
  • $OPRA
  • $KEYS
  • $CREE
  • $GAN
  • $BZUN
  • $JKHY
  • $FN
  • $MLCO
  • $KC
  • $FUV
  • $SQM
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S MOST NOTABLE EARNINGS RELEASES!)
(CLICK HERE FOR NEXT WEEK'S HIGHEST VOLATILITY EARNINGS RELEASES!)
Below are some of the notable companies coming out with earnings releases this upcoming trading week ahead which includes the date/time of release & consensus estimates courtesy of Earnings Whispers:

Monday 8.17.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Monday 8.17.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR MONDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Tuesday 8.18.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR TUESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Wednesday 8.19.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR WEDNESDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Thursday 8.20.20 After Market Close:

(CLICK HERE FOR THURSDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 Before Market Open:

(CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S PRE-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!)

Friday 8.21.20 After Market Close:

([CLICK HERE FOR FRIDAY'S AFTER-MARKET EARNINGS TIME & ESTIMATES!]())
(NONE)

Walmart Inc. $132.60

Walmart Inc. (WMT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.20 per share on revenue of $134.28 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.29 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 81% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 5.51% with revenue increasing by 2.99%. Short interest has decreased by 12.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 0.6% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.9% above its 200 day moving average of $120.64. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,381 contracts of the $135.00 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.3% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

NVIDIA Corp. $462.56

NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:20 PM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.95 per share on revenue of $3.65 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.01 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 84% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $1.83 to $2.06 per share. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 65.25% with revenue increasing by 41.53%. The stock has drifted higher by 31.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 57.7% above its 200 day moving average of $293.24. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,787 contracts of the $460.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 7.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 4.0% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. $253.97

Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (BABA) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:10 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.99 per share on revenue of $21.13 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 83% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 8.74% with revenue increasing by 26.22%. Short interest has increased by 30.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 20.0% above its 200 day moving average of $211.59. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,935 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, November 20, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.1% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

JD.com, Inc. $62.06

JD.com, Inc. (JD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:50 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.38 per share on revenue of $26.98 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.46 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 52.00% with revenue increasing by 23.25%. Short interest has increased by 16.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 24.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 36.9% above its 200 day moving average of $45.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 12,799 contracts of the $62.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 8.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.4% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Home Depot, Inc. $280.55

Home Depot, Inc. (HD) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $3.71 per share on revenue of $31.67 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $3.75 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 17.03% with revenue increasing by 2.69%. Short interest has decreased by 39.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 16.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 22.4% above its 200 day moving average of $229.20. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 14, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,323 contracts of the $300.00 call expiring on Friday, August 28, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 2.5% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Lowe's Companies, Inc. $154.34

Lowe's Companies, Inc. (LOW) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:00 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $2.93 per share on revenue of $21.29 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.97 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 78% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 36.28% with revenue increasing by 1.42%. Short interest has decreased by 19.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 31.2% above its 200 day moving average of $117.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Friday, August 7, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,994 contracts of the $170.00 call expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.0% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.8% move in recent quarters.

(CLICK HERE FOR THE CHART!)

Target Corp. $136.53

Target Corp. (TGT) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, August 19, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.56 per share on revenue of $19.30 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.64 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 75% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 14.29% with revenue increasing by 4.77%. Short interest has decreased by 36.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 10.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 18.0% above its 200 day moving average of $115.73. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Monday, August 10, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,479 contracts of the $135.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.3% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.

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Sea Limited $126.50

Sea Limited (SE) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Tuesday, August 18, 2020. The consensus estimate is for a loss of $0.47 per share on revenue of $1.03 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is ($0.36) per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 74% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 34.29% with revenue increasing by 136.16%. Short interest has decreased by 8.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 91.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 98.1% above its 200 day moving average of $63.87. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, August 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 4,000 contracts of the $110.00 put expiring on Friday, January 15, 2021. Option traders are pricing in a 12.9% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 16.7% move in recent quarters.

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Niu Technologies $20.82

Niu Technologies (NIU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 3:00 AM ET on Monday, August 17, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.07 per share on revenue of $88.07 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.11 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 57% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 30.00% with revenue increasing by 13.97%. Short interest has increased by 18.9% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 129.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 90.3% above its 200 day moving average of $10.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 3.7% move on earnings in recent quarters.

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BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. $41.48

BJ's Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:45 AM ET on Thursday, August 20, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.57 per share on revenue of $3.64 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.60 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 73% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 46.15% with revenue increasing by 8.79%. Short interest has decreased by 3.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 33.8% from its open following the earnings release to be 46.7% above its 200 day moving average of $28.27. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, August 12, 2020 there was some notable buying of 2,119 contracts of the $50.00 call expiring on Friday, September 18, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 12.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.0% move in recent quarters.

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DISCUSS!

What are you all watching for in this upcoming trading week?
I hope you all have a wonderful weekend and a great trading week ahead StockMarket.
submitted by bigbear0083 to StockMarket [link] [comments]

Unkle Mike. Culling Of Invisible Objects In Quake Related Engines

Intro
Despite all these great achievements in video cards development and the sworn assurances of developers about drawing 2 to 3 million polygons on screen without a significant FPS drop, it’s not all that rosy in reality. It depends on methods of rendering, on the number of involved textures and on the complexity and number of involved shaders. So even if all this really does ultimately lead to high performance, it only happens in the demos that developers themselves kindly offer. In these demos, some "spherical dragons in vacuum" made of a good hundred thousand polygons are drawn very quickly indeed. However, the real ingame situation for some reason never looks like this funny dragon from a demo, and as a result many comrades abandon the development of their "Crysis killer" as soon as they can render a single room with a couple of light sources, because for some reason FPS in this room fluctuate around 40-60 even on their 8800GTS and upon creating second room it drops to a whopping 20. Of course with problems like this, it would be incorrect to say how things aren’t that bad and how the trouble of such developers are purely in their absence of correctly implemented culling, and how it is time for them to read this article. But for those who have already overcome “the first room syndrome" and tried to draw – inferior though, but, anyway - the world, this problem really is relevant.
However, it should be borne in mind that QUAKE, written in ancient times, was designed for levels of a “corridor" kind exclusively; therefore methods of clipping discussed in this article are not applicable to landscapes, such as ones from STALKER or Crysis, since completely different methods work there, whose analysis is beyond the scope of this article. Meanwhile we’ll talk about the classic corridor approach to mapping and the effective clipping of invisible surfaces, as well as clipping of entire objects.

The paper tree of baloon leaves

As you probably know, QUAKE uses BSP, Binary Spacing Partition tree. This is a space indexing algorithm, and BSP itself doesn’t care if the space is open or closed, it doesn’t even care if the map is sealed, it can be anything. BSP implies the division of a three-dimensional object into a certain number of secant planes called "the branches" or "the nodes" and volumetric areas or rooms called "the leaves". The names are confusing as you can see. In QUAKE / QUAKE2 the branches usually contain information about the surfaces that this branch contain, and the leaves are an empty space, not filled with nothing. Although sometimes leaves may contain water for example (in a form of a variable that indicates, specifically, that we’ve got water in this leaf). Also, the leaf contains a pointer to the data of potential visibility (Potentially Visible Set, PVS) and a list of all surfaces that are marked as being visible from this leaf. Actually the approach itself implies that we are able to draw our world however we prefer, either using leaves only or using branches only. This is especially noticeable in different versions of QUAKE: for example, in QUAKE1 in a leaf we just mark our surfaces as visible and then we also sequentially go through all the surfaces visible from a particular branch, assembling chains of surfaces to draw them later. But in QUAKE3, we can accumulate visible surfaces no sooner than we’ll get into the leaf itself.
In QUAKE and QUAKE2, all surfaces must lie on the node, which is why the BSP tree grows rather quickly, but in exchange this makes it possible to trace these surfaces by simply moving around the tree, not wasting time to check each surface separately, which affects the speed of the tracer positively. Because of this, unique surface is linked to each node (the original surface is divided into several if necessary) so in the nodes we always have what is known to be visible beforehand, and therefore we can perform a recursive search on the tree using the BBox pyramid of frustum as a direction of our movement along the BSP tree (SV_RecursiveWorldNode function).
In QUAKE3, the tree was simplified and it tries to avoid geometry cuts as much as possible (a BSP tree is not even obliged to cut geometry, such cuts are but a matter of optimality of such a tree). And surfaces in QUAKE3 do not lie on the node because patches and triangle models lie there instead. But what happens would they be put on the node nevertheless, you can see on the example of "The Edge Of Forever" map that I compiled recently for an experimental version of Xash. Turns out, in places that had a couple thousand visible nodes and leaves in the original, there are almost 170 thousand of them with a new tree. And this is the result after all the preliminary optimizations, otherwise it could have been even more, he-he. Yeah, so... For this reason, the tree in QUAKE3 does not put anything on the node and we certainly do need to get into the leaf, mark visible surfaces in it and add them to the rendering list. On the contrary, in QUAKE / QUAKE2 going deep down to the leaf itself is not necessary.
Invisible polygon cutoff (we are talking about world polys, separate game objects will be discussed a bit later) is based on two methods:
The first method is to use bit-vectors of visibility (so-called PVS - Potential Visible Set). The second method is regular frustum culling which actually got nothing to do with BSP but works just as efficiently, for a certain number of conditions of course. Bottom line: together these two methods provide almost perfect clipping of invisible polygons, drawing a very small visible piece out of the vast world. Let's take a closer look at PVS and how it works.

When FIDO users get drunk

Underlying idea of PVS is to expose the fact that one leaf is visible from another. For BSP alone it’s basically impossible because leaves from completely different branches can be visible at the same time and you will never find a way to identify the pattern for leafs from different branches seeing each other - it simply doesn’t exist. Therefore, the compiler has to puff for us, manually checking the visibility of all leaves from all leaves. Information about visibility in this case is scanty: one Boolean variable with possible values 0 and 1. 0 means that leaf is not visible and 1 means that leaf is visible. It is easy to guess that for each leaf there is a unique set of such Boolean variables the size of the total number of leaves on the map. So a set like this but for all the leaves will take an order of magnitude more space: the number of leaves multiplied by the number of leaves and multiplied by the size of our variable in which we will store information of visibility (0 \ 1).
And the number of leaves, as you can easily guess, is determined by map size map and by the compiler, which upon reaching a certain map size, cease to divide the world into leaves and treat resulting node as a leaf. Leaf size vary for different QUAKE. For example, in QUAKE1 leaves are very small. For example I can tell you that the compiler divide standard boxmap in QUAKE1 into as many as four leaves meanwhile in QUAKE3 similar boxmap takes only one leaf. But we digress.
Let's estimate the size of our future PVS file. Suppose we have an average map and it has a couple thousand leaves. Would we imagine that the information about the leaf visibility is stored in a variable of char type (1 byte) then the size of visdata for this level would be, no more no less, almost 4 megabytes. That is, much AF. Of course an average modern developer would shrug and pack the final result into zip archive but back in 1995 end users had modest machines, their memory was low and therefore visdata was packed in “more different” ways. The first step in optimizing is about storing data not in bytes, but in bits. It is easy to guess that such approach reduce final result as much as 8 times and what's typical AF – does it without any resource-intensive algorithms like Huffman trees. Although in exchange, such approach somewhat worsened code usability and readability. Why am I writing this? Due to many developers’ lack of understanding for conditions in code like this:
if ( pvs [ leafnum >> 3 ] & ( 1 << ( leafnum & 7 ) ) ) { } 
Actually, this condition implement simple, beautiful and elegant access to the desired bit in the array (as one can recall, addressing less than one byte is impossible and you can only work with them via bit operations)

Titans that keep the globe spinning

The visible part of the world is cut off in the same fashion: we find the current leaf where the player is located (in QUAKE this is implemented by the Mod_PointInLeaf function) then we get a pointer to visdata for the current leaf (for our convenience, it is linked directly to the leaf in the form of "compressed_vis" pointer) and then stupidly go through all the leaves and branches of the map and check them for being visible from our leaf (this can be seen in the R_MarkLeaves function). As long as some leaves turn out to be visible from the current leaf we assign them a unique number from "r_visframecount" sequence which increases by one every frame. Thus, we emphasize that this leaf is visible when we build the current frame. In the next frame, "r_framecount" is incremented by one and all the leaves are considered invisible again. As one can understand, this is much more convenient and much faster than revisiting all the leaves at the end of each frame and zeroing their "visible" variable. I drew attention to this feature because this mechanism also bothers some and they don’t understand how it works.
The R_RecursiveWorldNode function “walk” along leaves and branches marked this way. It cuts off obviously invisible leaves and accumulate a list of surfaces from visible ones. Of course the first check is done for the equivalence of r_visframecount and visframe for the node in question. Then the branch undergoes frustum pyramid check and if this check fails then we don’t climb further along this branch. Having stumbled upon a leaf, we mark all its surfaces visible the same way, assigning the current r_framecount value to the visframe variable (in the future this will help us to determine quickly whether a certain surface is visible in the current frame). Then, using a simple function, we determine which side we are from the plane of our branch (each branch has its own plane, literally called “plane” in the code) and, again, for now, we just take all surfaces linked to this branch and add them to the drawing chain (so-called “texturechain”), although nobody can actually stop us from drawing them immediately, right there, (in QUAKE1 source code one can see both options) having previously checked these surfaces for clipping with the frustum pyramid, or at least having made sure that the surface faces us.
In QUAKE, each surface has a special flag SURF_PLANEBACK which help us determine the orientation of the surface. But in QUAKE3 there is no such flag anymore, and clipping of invisible surfaces is not as efficient, sending twice as many surfaces for rendering. However, their total number after performing all the checks is not that great. However, whatever one may say, adding this check to Xash3D raised average FPS almost one and half times in comparison to original Half-Life. This is on the matter whether it is beneficial. But we digress.
So after chaining and drawing visible surfaces, we call R_RecursiveWorldNode again but now - for the second of two root branches of BSP tree. Just in case. Because the visible surfaces, too, may well be there. When the recursion ends, the result will either be a whole rendered world, or chains of visible surfaces at least. This is what can actually be sent for rendering with OpenGL or Direct3D, well, if we did not draw our world right in the R_RecursiveWorldNode function of course. Actually this method with minor upgrades successfully used in all three QUAKEs.

A naked man is in a wardrobe because he's waiting for a tram

One of the upgrades is utilization of the so-called areaportals. This is another optimization method coming straight out of QUAKE2. The point of using areaportals is about game logic being able to turn the visibility of an entire sectors on and off at its discretion. Technically, this is achieved as follows: the world is divided into zones similar to the usual partitioning along the BSP tree, however, there can’t be more than 256 of them (later I will explain why) and they are not connected in any way.
Regular visibility is determined just like in QUAKE; however, by installing a special “func_areaportal” entity we can force the compiler to split an area in two. This mechanism operates on approximately the same principle as the algorithm of searching for holes in the map, so you won’t deceive the compiler by putting func_areaportal in a bare field - the compiler will simply ignore it. Although if you make areaportal the size of the cross-section of this field (to the skybox in all directions) in spite of everything the zones will be divided. We can observe this technique in Half-Life 2 where an attempt to return to old places (with cheats for example) shows us disconnected areaportals and a brief transition through the void from one zone to another. Actually, this mechanism helped Half-Life 2 simulate large spaces successfully and still use BSP level structure (I have already said that BSP, its visibility check algorithm to be precise, is not very suitable for open spaces).
So installed areaportal forcibly breaks one zone into two, and the rest of the zoneization is at the discretion of the compiler, which at the same time makes sure not to exceed 256 zones limit, so their sizes can be completely different. Well, I repeat, it depends on the overall size of the map. Our areaportal is connected to some door dividing these two zones. When the door is closed - it turns areaportal off and the zones are separated from each other. Therefore, if the player is not in the cut off zone, then rendering it is not worth it. In QUAKE, we’d have to do a bunch of checks and it’s possible that we could only cut off a fraction of the number of polygons (after all, the door itself is not an obstacle for either visibility check, or even more so, nor it is for frustum). Compare to case in point: one command is issued - and the whole room is excluded from visibility. “Not bad,” you’d say, “but how would the renderer find out? After all, we performed all our operations on the server and the client does not know anything about it.” And here we go back to the question why there can’t be more than 256 zones.
The point is, information about all of zone visibility is, likewise, packaged in bit flags (like PVS) and transmitted to the client in a network message. Dividing 256 bits by 8 makes 32 bytes, which generally isn’t that much. In addition, the tail of this information can be cut off at ease if it contains zeroes only. Though the payback for such an optimization would appear as an extra byte that will have to be transmitted over the network to indicate the actual size of the message about the visibility of our zones. But, in general, this approach justified.

Light_environment traces enter from the back

Source Engine turned out to have a terrible bug which makes the whole areaportal thing nearly meaningless. Numerous problems arise because of it: water breaks down into segments that pop in, well, you should be familiar with all this by now. Areaportal cuts the geometry unpredictably, like an ordinary secant plane, but its whole point is being predictable! Whereas areaportal brushes in Source Engine have absolutely no priority in splitting the map. It should be like this: first, the tree is cut the regular way. And when no suitable planes left, the final secant plane of areaportal is used. This is the only way to cut the sectors correctly.

Modern problems

The second optimization method, as I said, is increased size of the final leaf akin to QUAKE3. It is believed that a video card would draw a certain amount of polygons much faster than the CPU would check whether they are visible. This come from the very concept of visibility check: if visibility check takes longer than direct rendering, then well, to hell with this check. The controversy of this approach is determined by a wide range of video cards present at the hands of the end users, and it is strongly determined by the surging fashion for laptops and netbooks in which a video card is a very conditional and very weak concept (don’t even consider its claimed Shader Model 3 support). Therefore, for desktop gaming machines it would be more efficient to draw more at a time, but for weak video cards of laptops traditional culling will remain more reliable. Even if it is such a simple culling as I described earlier.

Decompression sickness simulator

Although I should also mention the principles of frustum culling, perhaps they are incomprehensible to some. Cutoff by frustum pyramid is actually pure mathematics without any compiler calculations. From the current direction of the player’s gaze, a clipping pyramid is built (the tip of the pyramid – in case someone can’t understand - is oriented towards the player’s point of view and its base is oriented in the direction of player’s view). The angle between the walls of the pyramid can be sharp or blunt - as you probably guessed already, it depends on the player's FOV. In addition, the player can forcefully pull the far wall of the pyramid closer to himself (yes, this is the notorious “MaxRange” parameter in the “worldspawn” menu of the map editor). Of course, OpenGL also builds a similar pyramid for its internal needs when it takes information from the projection matrix but we’re talking local pyramid now. The finished pyramid consists of 4-6 planes (QUAKE uses only 4 planes and trusts OpenGL to independently cut far and near polygons, but if you write your own renderer and intend to support mirrors and portals you will definitely need all six planes). Well, the frustum test itself is an elementary check for a presence of AA-box (AABB, Axis Aligned Bounding Box) in the frustum pyramid. Or speaking more correctly, this is a check for their intersection. Let me remind you that each branch has its own dimensions (a fragment of secant plane bound by neighboring perpendicular secant planes) which are checked for intersection. But unfortunately the frustum test has one fundamental drawback - it cannot cut what is directly in the player’s view. We can adjust the cutoff distance, we can even make that “ear feint” like they do in QFusion where final zFar value is calculated in each frame before rendering and then taken into account in entity clipping, but after all, whatever they say, the value itself was obtained from PVS-information. Therefore, neither of two methods can replace the other but they just complement each other. This should be remembered.

I gotta lay off the pills I'm taking

It seems that we figured out the rendering of the world and now we are moving on smoothly to cutting off moving objects... which are all the visible objects in the world! Even ones that, at te first glance, stand still and aren’t planning to move anywhere. Cause the player moves! From one point he still sees a certain static object, and from another point, of course, he no longer does. This detail should also be considered.
Actually, at the beginning of this article I already spoke in detail about an algorithm of objects’ visibility check: first we find the visible leaf for the player, then we find the visible leaf for the entity and then we check by visdata whether they see each other. I, too, would like to clarify (if someone suddenly does not understand) how each moving entity is given the number of its current visible leaf, i.e. directly for entity’s its own current position, and the leaves themselves are of course static and always in the same place.

Ostrich is such an OP problem solver

So the method described above has two potential problems:
The first problem is that even if A equals B, then, oddly enough, B is far from being always equal A. In other words, entity A can see entity B, but this does not mean that entity B see entity A, and, no, it’s not about one of them “looking” away. So why is this happening? Most often for two reasons:
The first reason is that one of the entities’ ORIGIN sit tight inside the wall and the Mod_PointInLeaf function for it points to the outer “zero” leaf from which EVERYTHING is visible (haven’t any of you ever flown around the map?). Meanwhile, no leaf inside the map can see outer leaf - these two features actually explain an interesting fact of an entire world geometry becoming visible and on the contrary, all objects disappearing when you fly outside the map. In regular mode, similar problems can occur for objects attached to the wall or recessed into the wall. For example, sometimes the sounds of a pressed button or opening door disappear because its current position went beyond the world borders. This phenomenon is fought by interchanging objects A and B or by obtaining alternative points for the position of an object, but all the same, it’s all not very reliable.

But lawyer said that you don't exist

In addition, as I said, there is another problem. It come from the fact that not every entity fits a single leaf. Only the player is so small that he can always be found in one leaf only (well, in the most extreme case - in two leaves on the border of water and air. This phenomenon is fought with various hacks btw), but some giant hentacle or on the contrary, an elevator made as a door entity, can easily occupy 30-40 leaves at a time. An attempt to check one leaf (for example, one where the center of the model is) will inevitably lead to a deplorable result: as soon as the center of an object will be out of the player’s visibility range, the entire object will disappear completely. The most common case is the notorious func_door used as an elevator. There is one in QUAKE on the E1M1. Observe: it travels halfway and then its ORIGIN is outside the map and therefore it must disappear from the player’s field of view. However, it does not go anywhere, right? Let us see in greater detail how this is done.
The simplest idea that comes to one’s mind: since the object occupies several leaves, we have to save them all somewhere in the structure of an object in the code and check them one by one. If at least one of these leaves is visible, then the whole object is visible (for example, it’s very tip). This is exactly what was implemented in QUAKE: a static array for 16 leaves and a simple recursive function SV_FindTouchedLeafs that looks for all the leaves in range hardcoded in "pev->absmins" and "pev->absmax" variables (pev i.e. a Pointer to EntVars_t table). absmins and absmax are recalculated each time SV_LinkEdict (or its more specific case of UTIL_SetOrigin) is called. Hence the quite logical conclusion that a simple change of ORIGIN without recalculating its visible leaf will take the object out of visibility sooner or later even if, surprisingly enough, it’s right in front of the player and the player should technically still be able to see it. Inb4 why one have to call UTIL_SetOrigin and wouldn’t it be easier to just assign new value to the "pev->origin" vector without calling this function. It wouldn’t.
With this method we can solve both former problems perfectly: we can fight the loss of visibility if the object's ORIGIN went beyond the world borders and level the difference of visibility for A->B versus visibility for B->A.

A secret life of monster_tripmine

Actually we’ve yet to encounter another problem, but it does not occur immediately. Remember, we’ve got an array of 16 leaves. But what if it won’t be enough? Thank God there are no beams in QUAKE and no very long elevators made as func_door either. For this exact reason. Because when the array is filled to capacity, the SV_FindTouchedLeafs function just stop and we can only hope that there won’t be that many cases when an object disappear right before our eyes. But in the original QUAKE, such cases may well be. In Half-Life, the situation is even worse - as you can remember there are rays that can reach for half the map, tripmine rays for example. In this case, a situation may occur when we see just the very tip of the ray. For most of these rays, 16 leaves are clearly not enough. Valve tried to remedy the situation by increasing the array to 48 leaves. That helped. On early maps. If you remember, at the very beginning of the game when the player has already got off the trailer, he enters that epic elevator that takes him down. The elevator is made as a door entity and it occupies 48 leaves exactly. Apparently, the final expansion of the array was based after its dimensions. Then the programmers realized that this isn’t really a solution, because no matter how much one would expand the array, it can still be lacking for something. So then they screwed up an alternative method for visibility check: a head branch (headnode) check. In short, this is still the same SV_FindTouchedLeafs but now it is called directly from the place of visibility check and with a subsequent transfer of visdata in there. In general, it is not used very often because it is slower than checking pre-accumulated leaves, that is, it is intended just for such non-standard cases like this one.
Well, and since, I hope, general picture of the clipping mechanism already beginning to take shape in your mind, I will finish the article in just a few words.
On the server, all objects that have already passed the visibility check are added to the network message containing information about visible objects. Thus, on the client, the list of visible entities is already cut off by PVS and we do not have to do this again and therefore a simple frustum check is enough. You ask, "why did we have to cut off invisible objects on the server when we could do this later when we are on the client already?" I reply: yes, we could, but now the objects cut off on the server didn’t get into the network message and saved us some traffic. And since the player still does not see them, what is the point of transferring them to the client just to check them for visibility after? This is a kind of double optimizing :)
© Uncle Mike 2012
submitted by crystallize1 to HalfLife [link] [comments]

FanFiction / The Fourth Age Volume 1

Premise: A Wheel of Time fan fiction series exploring politics in the Fourth Age, set twenty years after the Last Battle. Themes will include coming of age stories, non-binary channeling, and intimacy in the White Tower.
*Open to feedback, please also let me know if there are topics you want me to explore.
Volume 1 - The Practice Yard
Phae pulled the hood of their cloak tight, perching on the root of an ancient Leatherleaf. Despite their newly waxed vestments icy droplets beat across their ink-etched cheeks. Lightning split the purple sky, illuminating chaos in the practice yard below. Phae took care to tuck their color-banded hem out of sight, though doubting even a GoldenEye could spy them in this torrent. The sorda who hunts in plain sight becomes the prey in hindsight.
The picture before them was something from the Age of Legends, unconscionable just years prior. A dozen red frocked women, some in deep crimson, others scarlet as a tinker, seemed to sprout from sodden gravel like wild roses. Onyx clad thorns twined through their ranks, stoic and deadly. From the West earth churned, rippling across the yard like Bloodsnakes, exploding into fire-brimmed clouds of shrapnel. On the East end of the yard, a small red and black Circle wove nets of ice and air, quelling the Dragon Cloud just feet from their defense line. Scents of singed silks and burnt hair carried on the wind. In the White Tower practice could be fatal.
Phae studied the weaves greedily, as had come to be their weekly exercise these past few months. C’mon, do it again. Once more you lazy mutton boils. Within the White Tower walls, there were few opportunities to witness the weavings of Saidin. They eased closer, ducking behind the Northern fence for a better view. Every thread would need to be memorized and replicated perfectly later. A single negligent mistake, a fleeting moment of distraction, and their gift could be snuffed from the pattern. They did not think even the Queen of Malkier could heal that wound.
Phae knew no one living who could appreciate this particular dance such as they. It was said that the Asha’man bond created an intuition in Aes Sedai, a type of seventh sense for Saidin. But actually seeing both flows, forget flaming weaving both halves of the One Power? That was simply unfathomed.
“Until me.”
Tracing the weaves in the practice yard, Phae let their mind wander. Perhaps if I were to choose Brown I might discover some remnant from the Age of Legends, some inkling of my heritage. But no. Brown had never been a real option. Hours in the library had proved futile, too often inducing hazardous rages. Perhaps more like them had existed in the Third Age, and simply went mad and died? The Tower was either ignorant, or keeping secrets.
Phae smirked, imagining the shock on ol’ Mother Cadsuane’s face when they finally revealed their true nature, their true Power. Phae imagined themselves among the warriors of Tarmon Gai’don, facing the Forsaken, even outstripping the Dragon himself. What role could Phae have played? The White & Black Towers had served in kind, and both had suffered staggering casualties.
The rain could do nothing to dampen the pernicious spectacle before Phae, a show of Saidar and Saidin weaves to put Seanchan SkyLlights to shame. Opening to the Immensity of the nearby flows, the savor of Saidin grew stronger, became a throbbing torrent begging, howling to embrace more, always more.
I will be more. A silent mantra.
Flicker, flicker, flicker.
Suddenly, white painted the sky as ebony shadows blanketed the ground. A deafening quake descending faster than comprehension. Instinct. Leaping in the air like a Maiden, Phae sprinted up the steep path away from danger, lungs burning, blood trickling from their nape. They did not turn to glance at the splintered Leatherleaf, did not see the charred carcass that lay where Phae stood a heart’s beat ago.
__
On the southern end of the yard, Bellana Sedai watched a dark, willowy figure dart up the cobble stones. She breathed a small sigh of relief, then smiled to herself satisfactorily. “That girl will choose the Red after all. And soon I should think. Let the Browns sip on that!” This new generation was ambitious, but Phaedra stood out even among Wilders. No doubt she would be raised by Spring, and be leading Circles within a year or two after. Bellana released the power, ignoring the fleeting sense of loss and steeling herself against fatigue.
“Soldier Barris!” She crowed, turning her attention to the Asha’man in training.
A stocky, stump of a boy lumbered across the yard to where she stood.
“What in the Light do you think you are doing Solider? Ripping out trees that have stood hundreds of years from before you were a wish in your mother’s milk?”
“Uh, well, Sir I thought, I mean Ma'am, I mean Aes Sedai, Sir.” Barris stammered. It was his first tour at the Tower, and unaccustomed to the restraints of Aes Sedai training. Bellana silenced him with a cool, raised brow.
“You thought you were ready to try a weave that could burn you out, destroy a soldier from a hundred yards off? You aren’t ready to be off leading strings it seems, never mind wear the dragon. Now, see to it that Leatherleaf stays dry long enough to become firewood for the Tower, and bring a birch cutting to Rosil Sedai. It can be accomplished before sundown I should think.”
With a simple nod, Bellana Sedai turned her back on the soldier, assured her orders would be followed to the letter. These children required a firm hand, but she tried to avoid discharging them to Black Tower methods when possible. The M’Hael’s punishments made a trip to the Mistress of Novices look like afternoon tea.
___
Phae did not stop running when they reached the Tower, nor once they crossed the threshold into Accepted quarters. They did not give thought to supper, or to the dull ache at the back of their head. Upon reaching their modest room, Phae finally stopped, promptly collapsing in a heap on the cold stone floor.
Tears came first. Then laughter. Then both in union, until exhaustion took them and they were forced to crawl to the refuge of their four-post bed. But Phae was not delirious from a brush with death, nor the thought of being caught embracing Saidin. No, the lightning had not fried their wits. They had done it. At long last they had caught the deadly weavings of Saidin & Saidar on the practice yard, memorized both sides of the complex flows exactly. Small accomplishment though it may seem, it was the first puzzle piece to fit into place for a very, very long time. It was a start. Something clicked, and they knew they would not stumble, would not burn out, they would Blaze like the fires of Dragonmount.
I am ready to begin.
___
The Wheel of Time turns, and Ages come and pass, leaving memories that become legend. Legend fades to myth, and even myth is long forgotten when the Age that gave it birth comes again. In one Age, called the Fourth Age by some, an Age yet to come, an Age long past, a wind rose over the Field of Merrilor. The wind graced a forgotten child, brought from the far lands of Shara, and born in blood. The wind was not the beginning. There are neither beginnings nor endings to the turning of the Wheel of Time. But it was a beginning.
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