Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful. If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic. As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you. Part II
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Letting stops breathe
We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise. Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight. Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch! One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure. For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that. If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it. There are also more analytical approaches. Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves. For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size. ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart). Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon? Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.
Reasons to change a stop
As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later. There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare. One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are. Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out. Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example. The mighty trailing stop loss order It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops. One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea. Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out. Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?
Entering and exiting winning positions
Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position. The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t. Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter. Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid. The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.
Entering positions with limit orders
That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one? Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205. You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait. Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in. So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?! There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position. Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action. You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market. Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders. Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD. Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct. Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend. You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.
Risk:reward and win ratios
Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important! Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money. If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below. A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders. That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips. One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline. Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.
Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad! The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below. The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility. Would you rather have the first trading record or the second? If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps . A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return. If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk. This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ... Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.
The Sharpe ratio works like this:
It takes the average returns of your strategy;
It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent. You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.
VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%. A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade. Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment. Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often. These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.
Coming up in part III
Available here Squeezes and other risks Market positioning Bet correlation Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits *** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
There are two common theories as far as live forex charts are concerned: The first is by the many forex traders who believe that live forex charts can never be used to win in a forex trade simply because they rely on demand and supply fundamentals. On the other hand, some investors believe that live forex graphs are a mirror reflection to a human mind; they are constant but prices can be predicted. Which is a fact and which is not? Forex Brokers Reviews The truth is that live currency graphs work and deliver results. There is however one common misconception that must be cleared even before we get into how live currency charts work. Contrary to common belief, live charts are not used as tools to predict future variations in pair prices. The truth is that unlike scientific theories, prices are not determined by fixed aspects. If this was the case, live charts would be very predictable, and there would be no point in trade in foreign exchange, would there? This, however, does not mean that live charts are not useful to the foreign exchange trade. As a matter of fact, live forex tables are some of the most important tools in use in foreign exchange trading. Combined with technical analysis, live currency graphs can be some of the most valuable assets an exchange trader can have in the business. With the help of live forex charts, you can know the moving averages and when the price has gone above or below. Day trading does not require much analysis apart from some real time history of price movements. It is a vital tool in a seasoned trader's toolbox and the newbie simply cannot do without it. Getting technical indicators upfront in real time has come as a big boon to online forex traders coast to coast. forex broker review With live charts you can identify when the market has entered an overbought zone with the help of RSI. To enter and exit a trade and also for working on multiple indicators, you need live charts to guide you through. If two indicators like the RSI and MACD indicate buy signals, then you could buy and forex market requires taking decisions in a flash. To make profits and keep losses to the minimum, use forex live chart. The live forex chart is a lifeline for the day trader wanting to close positions within a matter of a few minutes or hours. Usually a long term investor in the forex market does not need live charts, but day traders require keeping tabs on price changes by the minute. Top Rated Forex Brokers Traders depend solely on the chart prices to plan their moves and they have to be real time stuff to be of any use. Depending on what type of trade you would be doing, you should select the right software for viewing forex charts. You can monitor every single move the currency pair makes as well as keep track of technical indicators. Visit Here -Most Trusted forex brokers
The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases. This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.
How economic news is released
First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020. In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus. The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots. No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners. Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup. Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price! Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!
How the news affects forex markets
Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent. It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast. Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators. Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market. The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US. Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com. Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles. I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present) USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present) The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all. For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected. The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up. I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.
So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report. Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters. Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk. Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not. Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one. The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest. Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered. I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized. For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade. Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot. Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from. Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade. That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.
Make it real
If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day. Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved. Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world. I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
So you wanna trade Forex? - tips and tricks inside
Let me just sum some stuff up for you newbies out there. Ive been trading for years, last couple of years more seriously and i turned my strategies into algorithms and i am currently up to 18 algorithms thats trading for me 24/7. Ive learned alot, listened to hundreds of podcasts and read tons of books + research papers and heres some tips and tricks for any newbie out there.
Strategy - How to... When people say "you need a trading strategy!!" Its because trading is very hard and emotional. You need to stick to your rules at all times. Dont panic and move your stop loss or target unless your rules tell you to. Now how do you make these rules? Well this is the part that takes alot of time. If your rules are very simple (for example: "Buy if Last candles low was the lowest low of the past 10 candles." Lets make this a rule. You can backtest it manually by looking at a chart and going back in time and check every candle. or you can code it using super simple software like prorealtime, MT4 ++ Alot of software is basicly "click and drag" and press a button and it gives you backtest from 10-20-30 years ago in 5 seconds. This is the absolute easiest way to backtest rules and systems. If your trading "pure price action" with your drawn lines and shit, the only way to truly backtest that kind of trading is going in a random forex pair to a random point in time, could be 1 year ago, 1 month ago, 5 years ago.. and then you just trade! Move chart 1 candle at a time, draw your lines and do some "actual trading" and look at your results after moving forward in the chart. If you do not test your strategy your just going in blind, which could be disaster.. Maybe someone told u "this is the correct way to trade" or "this strategy is 90% sure to win every trade!!!" If you think you can do trading without a strategy, then your most likely going to look back at an empty account and wonder why you moved that stop loss or why you didnt take profit etc.. and then your gonna give up. People on youtube, forums, interwebz are not going to give you/sell you a working strategy thats gonna make you rich. If they had a working strategy, they would not give it away/sell it to you.
Money management - How to.... Gonna keep this one short. Risk a small % of your capital on each trade. Dont risk 10%, dont risk 20%. You are going to see loosing trades, your probably gonna see 5-10 loss in a row!! If your trading a 1000$ account and your risking 100$ on each trade (10%) and you loose 5 in a row, your down -50% and probably you cant even trade cus of margin req. Game over.. Now how does one get super rich, super fast, from risking 1-3% of your account on each trade?? Well heres the shocking message: YOU CANT GET RICH FAST FROM TRADING UNLESS YOUR WILLING TO GO ALL IN! You can of course go all in on each trade and if you get em all right, you might get 1000%, then you go all in 1 more time and loose it all... The whole point of trading is NOT going bust. Not loosing everything, cus if you loose it all its game over and no more trading for you.
Find your own trading style.... Everyone is different. You can have an average holding period of 1 month or you could be looking at a 1 min chart and average holding time = 10 minutes. For some, less volatility helps them sleep at night. For others, more volatility gives them a rush and some people crave this. There is no "correct" timeframes, or holding periods, or how much to profit or how much to loose. We are all individuals with different taste in risk. Some dont like risk, others wanna go all in to get rich over night. The smart approach is somewhere in the middle. If you dont risk anything, your not gonna get anything. If you risk everything, your most likely going to loose everything. When people are talking about trading style, this is kinda what that means.
There are mainly 2 ways to trade: Divergence and Convergence. Or in other words: Mean reversion or trend following. Lets talk about them both: Trend following is trying to find a trend and stay with the trend until its over. Mean reversion is the belief that price is too far away from the average XX of price, and sooner or later, price will have to return to its average/mean (hence the name: MEAN reversion). Trend following systems usually see a lower winrate (30-40% winrate with no money management is not uncommon to see when backtesting trend following systems.. You can add good money management to get the winrate % higher. Why is the % winrate so low? Well a market, whatever that market is, tend to get real choppy and nasty right after a huge trend. So your gonna see alot of choppy fake signals that might kill 5-6 trades in a row, until the next huge trend starts which is going to cover all the losses from the small losses before the trend took off. Then you gotta hold that trade until trade is done. How do you define "when trend starts and stops"? Well thats back to point 1, find a strategy. Try defining rules for an entry and exit and see how it goes when you backtest it. For mean reversion the win % is usually high, like 70-90% winrate, but the average winning trade is alot smaller than the average loosing trade. this happens because you are basicly trying to catch a falling knife, or catch a booming rocket. Usually when trading mean reversion, waiting for price to actually reverse can very often leave you with being "too late", so you kinda have to find "the bottom" or "the top" before it actually has bottomed/ topped out and reversed. How can you do this you ask? Well your never going to hit every top or every bottom, but you can find ways to find "the bottom-ish" or "the top-ish", thens ell as soon as price reverts back to the mean. Sometimes your gonna wish you held on to the trade for longer, but again, back to point 1: Backtest your rules and figure that shit out.
Read these 4 points and try to follow them and you are at least 4 steps closer to being a profitable trader. Some might disagree with me on some points but i think for the majority, people are going to agree that these 4 points are pretty much universal. Most traders have done or are doing these things every day, in every trade. Here is some GREAT material to read: Kevin Davey has won trading championship multiple times and he has written multiple great books, from beginner to advanced level. Recommend these books 100%, for example: Building winning algorithmic trading systems" will give you alot to work with when it comes to all 4 of the above points. Market wizards, Reminiscences of a stock operator are 2 books that are a great read but wont give you much "trading knowledge" that you can directly use for your trading. Books on "The turtles" are great reading. Then you have podcasts and youtube. I would stay away from youtube as much as possible when it comes to "Heres how to use the rsi!!!" or "this strategy will make you rich!!". Most youtube videoes are made by people who wanna sell you a course or a book. Most of this is just pure bullshit. Youtube can very harmfull and i would honestly advice about going there for "strategy adivce" and such. Podcasts tho are amazing, i highly recommend: Better systems trader, Chat with traders, Top traders unplugged, We study billionairs, to name a few :) Also, on a less funny note.. Please realize that you are, and i am, real fucking stupid and lazy compared to the actual pro's out there. This is why you should not go "all in" on some blind stupid strategy youve heard about. This is why this is indeed VERY FUCKING HARD and most, if not everyone has busted an account or two before realizing just this. Your dumb.. your not going to be super rich within 1 year.. You can not start with 500$ account and make millions! (some might have been able to do this, but know that for every winner, theres 999 loosers behind him that failed... Might work fine first 5 trades, then 1 fuckup tho and ur gone.. And lastly: Try using a backtesting software. Its often FREE!!! (on a demo account) and often so simple a baby could use it. If your trading lines and such there exists web broweser "games" and softwares that lets you go "1 and 1 candle ahead" in random forex pairs and that lets you trade as if its "real" as it goes. A big backtesting trap however is backtesting "losely" by just drawing lines and looking at chart going "oh i would have taken this trade FOR SURE!! I would have made so much money!!" however this is not actually backtesting, its cherry picking and its biased beyond the grave, and its going to hurt you. Try going 1 candle at a time doing "real and live" trades and see how it goes. Bonus point!! many people misunderstands what indicators like the RSI is telling you. Indeed something is "overbought" or "oversold" but only compared to the last average of xx amounts of bars/candles. It doesn't tell you that RIGHT NOW is a great time to sell or buy. It only tells you that the math formula that is RSI, gives you a number between 1-100, and when its above 70 its telling you that momentum is up compared to the last average 14 candles. This is not a complete buy/sell signal. Its more like a filter if anything. This is true for MOST indicators. They INDICATE stuff. Dont use them as pure buy/sell signals.. At least backtest that shit first! Your probably gonna be shocked at the shitty results if you "buy wehn rsi is undeer 30 and sell when RSI is above 70". Editedit: Huge post already, why not copy paste my comment with an example showing the difference in trend following vs mean reversion: The thing about trend following is that we never know when a trade starts and when it ends. So what often happens is that you have to buy every breakout going up, but not every breakout is a new trend. Lets do an example. Check out the photo i included here: https://imageshost.eu/image/image.RcC THE PHOTO IS JUST AN EXAMPLE THAT SHOWS WHY A TYPICAL TREND FOLLOWING STRATEGY HAVE A "LOW" WINRATE. THE PHOTO IS NOT SHOWING AN EXAMPLE OF MY STRATEGIES OR TRADING.
We identify the big orange trend up.
We see the big break down (marked with the vertical red line) this is telling us we are not going higher just yet. Our upwards trend is broken. However we might continue going up in a new trend, but when will that trend come?
We can draw the blue trend very earyly using highs and lows, lines up and down. Then we begin to look for breakouts of the upper blue line. So every time price breaks upper blue line we have to buy (cus how else are we going to "catch the next trend going up?)
As you can see we get 5 false breakouts before the real breakout happens! Now if you could tell fake breakouts from real breakouts, your gonna be rich hehe. For everyone else: Take every signal you can get, put a "tight" stop loss so in case its a fake signal you only loose a little bit. Then when breakout happens as you can clearly see in chart, your going to make back all the small losses. So in this example we fail 5 times, but get 1 HUGE new trend going further up. This 1 huge trade, unless we fuck it up and take profits too early or shit like that, is going to win back all those small losses + more. This is why trend following has a low winrate. You get 5 small loss and 1 big win. Now lets flip this! Imagine if your trading Mean reversion on all the same red arrows! So every time price hits the blue line, we go short back to the bottom (or middle) again! You would have won 5 trades with small profits, but on that last one you would get stopped out so hard. Meaning 5 small wins, 1 big loss (as some have pointed out in comments, if you where trading mean reverting you would wanna buy the lows as well as short the tops - photo was suppose to show why trend following strategies have a lower % winrate.) Final edit: sorry this looks like a wall of text on ur phones.
Hard. Following up on my post about trading economic news, here are some hard numbers about news releases. If you can't be bothered to read any further, just know that a high S value means there is money to be made by trading the release of that economic metric. I collected historical data (consensus and actual) for each of these economic metrics from January 2018 to the present. These are mostly monthly metrics; one is quarterly, one is biweekly, and one is weekly. I did this manually from an economic news aggregation website because I'm too cheap to pay for exported data. I also noted whether each release was the primary (or only) news being released at that precise moment or whether there were other important economic metrics being released at the same time. Then I wrote software to fetch 2 minutes of USD/JPY price data (in 5 second candles) starting at the time of each release and correlated each candle to the "surprise" in the metric (the difference between the consensus and the actual). That produced data for each metric that looks like this and give you an idea how reliably the news predicts the short-term price move. Next the software went back through the price history and measured the "coordinated movement" of the currency pair during each candle. By that I mean it measured the size of each candle in pips and then set the sign to be positive if its moving in the same direction as the first candle or negative otherwise, and averaged all those numbers together. These charts look like this and give you an idea how dramatically the price moves in response to the news. Then, for each candle, the absolute value of the correlation is multiplied against the coordinated movement, creating a "tradeability" score. The idea is that a strong (positive or negative) correlation and a strong coordinated movement yields a high score, and either a weak correlation or a small price movement yields a low score. These charts look like this. Finally, for each news release I measured the maximum value of the correlation (R) and the maximum value of the tradeability score (S). Since I don't have access to anything with finer granularity than 5 seconds, it's no surprise that candle 0 had the maximum correlation and maximum tradeability for each metric. I did this process twice for every metric: first over all releases and second over only those releases that were the primary or only release happening at that moment. I kept the results from the one that returned the better net maximum tradeability score. The net maximum tradeability score is just the product of the maximum tradeability score and the number of releases being considered, either all of them or some smaller number. (This helps avoid bias in the results for metrics that are often released at the same time as other metrics.) In the results linked at the top of this post, the metrics are ordered by decreasing maximum tradeability score (S) with maximum correlation (R) also shown. Remember, R = +1 means perfect positive linear correlation, R = -1 means perfect negative linear correlation, and R = 0 means no correlation. S values less than 3 are essentially untradeable due to the spread. A couple notes:
Non Farms Payroll, one of the most closely watched economic indicators, is the most tradeable by far. Although not shown here, the correlation is even higher (0.8xx) if you omit those releases that occur simultaneously as other news, but because of the strong correlation and high pip movement it's better overall to consider all NFP releases.
Retail Sales is tradeable, but Personal Income and Personal Spending is not. This was a surprise to me, I haven't traded any of these metrics before. I'll have to look into what is exactly in each one to understand why this is.
With the exception of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, all of these releases are correlated with the price movement, but many of them aren't practical to trade because the movement is too small.
The negative sign and weak correlation on Inflation Rate MoM is a bug, I think. I got a different (positive) number when I ran it earlier, but then I was on a conference call while reformatting the data and I may have done something dumb. I'll go back and review it.
It takes me about 15 minutes to scrape 2 years of monthly data by hand and type it up, and then the software takes about 10 seconds to run per metric. If there are regular forecasted economic releases that you'd like to see correlated and scored, let me know! I can do other currency pairs and other country's economic news as well, it's just a matter of data collection.
Hi all, I am fairly new to the forex world and intend to learn as much as I possibly can. I have realised that backtesting is very very important so I would like to know peoples opinions on the best software. I have been using Trading View's back testing but it only shows candle by candle, like if I'm on the 15 minute chart at say 13:15, then move the the hour chart to do some more analysis, I see the whole 13:00 candle, so I fast-forward 45 minutes. If possible I'd like software that goes based on time with moving candles if you know what I mean?
Recommended Free Charting Software, paper trading?
So I've been trying out several charting software such as ninjatrader, thinkorswim, traderview, yahoo finance, TC2000. Each has their benefits, but what's unfortunate is the delayed data. The delay is about 15 minutes. Also if you're papertrading on thinkorswim it doesn't execute orders based on the displayed 15 minute delayed data, instead it's based on real time data. It's difficult to take a position without defaulting to market price which is very different from what you think it is. What's also weird is how the price on robinhood is closer to realtime than the various charting software I'm using.I trade on robinhood btw. My question is there free charting that has better live data service?Are they all behind a pay wall? If so what do you recommend?Is live data service not available on stocks?(ex: thinkorswim has live data for futures/forex, but not stocks. Is that because I don't have any real money in it?) Update: Thinkorswim you just need to enable live data by going into your account settings on the website and sign up for real Time Nasdaq level II quotes"
As more people have started bringing in great cash online trading forex, there's been plenty more people searching for information on trading forex. With that in mind, let's look at how forex trading works.The key idea is the same as the stock market.: Buy low and sell high. For example, the dollar from Canada is worth about seventy-five cents US right now. If you have reasons to believe that Canadian dollars will gain in value, it's wise to acquire CDN currency at 75 cents and sell them when the value jumps.Currency traders will take a lot of time probing pairs of currencies the and Canadian dollar are one example of a currency pair, looking for key indicators or economic indicators in order to see buy and sell transactions and make some money.Currency Traders also use forex computer trading programs that automatically the trader spot trading signals. Every professional will utilize this type of software as it will increase their profits by a huge amount.these programs can make be the difference between a profitable trader and someone who loses money. Obviously it's hard to confess that a piece of software is smarter than them, but many of the traders that are making lots of money owe it to some sort of currency program. https://preview.redd.it/p0gnx13l32n21.png?width=768&format=png&auto=webp&s=87e57a614750dcafc3afc1610017eda474d0e5cb Althought this may seem a bit perplexing or technical - especially for those who are unfamiliar with forex trading. It's nice to know that these programs have been designed - ordinarily by a group of industry professionals and mathematicians - so the programs can analyze the data and recognize money making trades that anyone with the program can make.If you're thinking about getting into forex trading, it's best to purchase some type of forex trading software like this so it can allow you to make money right away. Ordinarily, these programs will return some strong profits for the trader on autopilot. This allows you extra time to do further research on the markets and later on you will use both of the trades the forex program points out and the trading ideas you generate yourself based on you want to learn the best Forex scalping strategy? Scalpers in the currencies market usually find themselves making 6 or more trades per day, depending on the volatility of the markets on that day. It is very different from other methods of trading like swing and day trading. It requires a completely different set of strategies and mindset in order to profit successfully from it. It is very easy to lose money and get frustrated if the trader does not have the right scalping skills. There will also be times when the market is very difficult to scalp due to huge volatility; therefore it is a good idea to use scalping strategies together with breakout strategies and not just relying on scalping alone.The best time to make money is when the price of the currencies are not making significant up or down movements. This usually happens in about 70% to 80% of the time, and also depends on the inherent volatility of the currency pair.This period of time is also known as consolidation, and they usually range for a few hours and can last the entire day. The consolidation pattern ends when the price breaks up or down significantly above the resistance or below the key support levels.Looking for a review of the Forex Invasion online trading system? Many traders who have read about this brand new currency trading system are very curious to find out more about how it works and whether they can really benefit from it.There are many screenshots on its website showing how the owner, Steven Lee Jones, made consistent 5 figure profit trades weekly. It seemed too good to be true to me at first, and eventually I decided to purchase this new trading system to test it out for myself. Basically, you must first learn to understand the logic behind the system when you first read the written guide. The entire logic and analysis methods have been listed in formulas and step by step instructions that anyone can start using on the Forex charts to make money immediately Using the rules of the system, I will need to spend about 15 to 20 minutes per day looking at the conditions of the market. The system's rules tell me whether I have any suitable trades to make. If there is a profitable trading opportunity, I also get clear instructions on the amount I need to invest in the trade which depends on the size of my trading capital as well as how much profit and stop loss I should set for it.While everyone goes into the market hoping for forex profits, inevitably near 90% of everyone who jumps into the ring typically end up losing everything which they had invested. Still, if you take the time to school yourself in the market happenings, maybe demo trade with virtual money for a few months, long enough to get a firm grasp on what you're doing, currency exchanging can be a surprisingly strong way to control your own financial independence. https://genuinehealthreviews.com/cryptocurrency-codex-review/ https://healthreviewfactory.com/the-memory-hack-review/ https://genuinehealthreviews.com/einstein-success-code-review/
Established Strategies You Can Use In Forex Trading
Both down market and up market patterns are visible, but one is more dominant. You should aim to select the trades based on the trends. Adjust your position each time you open up a new trade, based on the charts you're studying. Traders often open in the same position and spend more than they should or not a sufficient amount. Vary your position depending on the trades above you if you want to be profitable in the market. Some currency pairs have what is called an inverse relationship with another currency pair. What this means is that when one pair is trending upwards, the other trends downward (and vice-versa). The classic example is that of the EUUSD vs. the USD/CHF. This comes about because the Swiss economy is closely tied with the rest of the European economy. Additionally, there is the common factor of the US dollar in both pairs. If you are just starting out in Forex and you are still hesitant about investing your own money, sign up for a demo account with a broker that will enable you to try out your Forex investment skills. Demo accounts allow you to trade with virtual money. It is a great way for you to practice without risking any real money. You should try Forex trading without the pressure of real money. By practicing live trading under real market conditions, you can get a feel for the Forex market without using actual currency. You can also get some excellent trading advice through online tutorials. Gather as much information as you can, and practice a lot of trading with your demo account, before you move on to trading with money. It may seem like it is you against the world sometimes when it comes to dealing with Forex trading. With the vast amount of information available online, it can be nearly overwhelming at first. This article will provide much helpful information for you to get started on the right path. Begin as a Forex trader by setting attainable goals and sticking with those goals. Establishing goals, and deadlines for meeting those goals, is extremely important when you're trading in Forex. Keep in mind that the timetable you create should have room for error. If this is your first-time trading, you will probably make mistakes. Additionally, calculate a realistic amount of time that you can spend trading, and make sure to factor in time spent researching. You should pay attention to the larger time frames above the one-hour chart. Technology can even allow you to track Forex down to 15-minute intervals. The thing is that fluctuations occur all the time and it's sometimes random luck what happens. You do not need stress in your life, stay with long cycles. Be sure that you always open up in a different position based on the market. There are Forex traders who always open using the same position. They often end up committing more cash than they intended and don't have enough money. Learn to adjust your trading accordingly for any chance of success. Learning about the currency pair you choose is important. It can take a long time to learn different pairs, so don't hold up your trading education by waiting until you learn every single pair. It's better to pick a pair in which you are interested, do your research, and understand how volatile the pair is. Follow and news reports and take a look at forecasting for your currency pair. As a beginner in Forex, you will need to determine what time frames you will prefer trading in. To make plans for getting in and out of trades quickly, rely on the 15-minute and hourly charts to plan your entry and exit points. A scalper, for example, might refer to the five- and ten-minute charts to complete trades within a matter of minutes. Utilize resources at hand, such as exchange market signals, to facilitate purchases or sell-outs. Forex Robots Software allows you to set alerts that sound once the market reaches a certain rate. Figure out your exit and entry points ahead of time to avoid losing time to decision-making. Many traders make careless decisions when they start making money based upon greed and excitement. Consequently, not having enough confidence can also cause you to lose money. Work hard to maintain control of your emotions and only act once you have all of the facts - never act based on your feelings. If you are new to the trading market, you should begin your account with a small initial deposit. This minimizes your losses if you were to lose your money. Instead of depositing more money, you should try to make gains through the money that you initially invested, and then place the money into further investments. Be sure that your account has a Stop-loss in place. Stop-losses are like free insurance for your trading. If you do not set up any type of Stop-loss order, and there happens to be a large move that was not expected, you can wind up losing quite a bit of money. Your capital can be preserved with Stop-loss orders.
Derivatives Trading is on the Edge of a New World With Artificial Intelligence on Level01
https://preview.redd.it/2r0yyzpr9z321.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=4d3d9fa506588761696133140ca38af266215f29 Could artificial intelligence in trading become the new normal? Advances in technology and new standards surrounding automated trading are pushing us ever closer to transforming the industry. If this sounds very much like a science fiction movie, we can assure you it is not. In fact, artificial intelligence (AI) is already being utilized by banks, but its going to take a little longer for people to catch up to the idea that their investment is as safe, if not safer than it would be if their investments were handled by humans. An analysis by Accenture indicates that between 2018 and 2022, banks that invest in AI and human-machine collaboration at the same rate as top-performing businesses could boost their revenue by an average of 34 percent. AI’s application is proven to improve efficiencies or customer outcomes and the software-development team at Level01 is working hard to achieve a human-machine collaborated future in derivatives trading — to help people trade better, with ease and peace of mind. As far as discernment in artificial intelligence in trading go, algorithmic trading is perhaps the most discussed of all. If we take a closer look at its application today, automated trading reflects our attitudes towards technology and how it is evolving the way we invest. Yet much of the discussion is still fixated on the hypothetical scenarios that automated trading would take over human jobs. Much less weight is being placed on the fact that AI through its fundamental form known to many as algorithmic trading has been used by institutional and retail investors for almost a decade now. “But there’s an obvious gap between institutional and retail users when it comes to trading and we aim to bridge that gap by creating a ‘level playing field’ for Level01 users. We do this by empowering them with our AI price discovery mechanism known as ‘FairSense’” says Naglis Vysniauskas, Head Quant Developer at Level01. “The AI was built using cross-stream analytics that were previously available only to institutional organizations.” From helping investors to assess true market value of the contracts to enabling them to continuously update their bid or offer price relative to the implied fair value by FairSense, plenty of functions were built in to support human-collaborated trading, rather than substituting it. Introducing these features on a sleek user-friendly app is a strategic step-by-step approach to help the public get used to a whole different way of investing on an efficient and trustworthy Peer to Peer Derivatives Market platform like Level01. “People will experience trading at speeds, liquidity, freedom, accountability and transparency that have never been available before” says Vysniauskas. Those that find it hard to believe, can now experience trading on Level01 without limitations traditionally set by brokers, who would force their clients to accept their given price, disallow clients from dictating the best execution and insist that clients to trade at a ‘spread vs. mid’ (clients have no power to negotiate the level of spreads which they pay). The level of freedom granted to users on Level01 is enticing and highly persuasive. “On the Level01 Derivatives Exchange platform, retail investors (or users as we call them) can trade against multiple peers or brokers, and this enables them to find best execution available,” says Vysniauskas. “Also, the ability to specify a fixed spread to fair value of an instrument could potentially reduce trading spreads significantly for large investors.” The practicality of this feature though may not fit small investors though, because leaving fixed bid or offer prices without continuous adjustment would be risky in markets where sudden movements are common. “That is why we built Level01 to give users the freedom to continuously update their bid or offer price relative to the implied fair value by FairSense, this is so that if the trade is not a match, the bid or offer price is updated continuously as market moves to ensure that it is always priced competitively relative to the most recent fair value” adds Vysniauskas. HOW DOES FAIRSENSE WORK TO LEVEL01 USER’S ADVANTAGE? For the purposes of explaining how FairSense AI helps users on Level01, we take a look at this case study of a Binary Option Example on EUUSD Forex Pair. https://preview.redd.it/qqiilcks9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cfff89ed36c8051751e93f072c5c5f89b2ecace5 A 10-minute binary put option is being offered at a $59.73 (fair value +$0.50). The order is not filled or matched almost immediately, and after 4 seconds, the EUUSD spot price has moved by 1.5 pips and the fair value has not moved above the investor’s offer price. In this case, a contract is being offered below fair value. Now take a look at Chart 01 below. You can see that the relationship of the fair value of an option with the spot EUUSD price. You can tell that the fair value is highly dependent on the spot rate. Thus, if a retail investor submits an offer to an exchange, it might be filled at a time when it is already below the fair value — an undesirable scenario for investors. Such scenarios will stop investors from submitting further offers to the exchange. https://preview.redd.it/v9gfxbit9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=fea9e3720a679b5f79e0306409c73f71844210ac To resolve this common problem, Level01’s FairSense AI enables all investors to quote ‘relative offers’ to FairSense’s fair value. This allows investors to simultaneously compete for the best offers without imposing them with a requirement to have their own algorithms for price estimation and having them continuously updating the quote manually. https://preview.redd.it/4lmbz3du9z321.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd59e23b3bab3d0d0097f5a0016bf489ddbbae4f In many ways, having AI as the norm will become essential to creating investment outcomes that are optimized for every type of investor, truly transforming the way trading is done. With an advanced Blockchain platform, AI and inbuilt frameworks that are designed to favor the user, Level01 will shape the future of automated trading on its Peer to Peer Derivatives Exchange at scale and speed that the world will come to marvel.
[Sorry for the long post] So I've looked around this sub and I see a lot of high level or theoretical Algo discussions which I can appreciate but I'm kind of lost when it comes to practical applications and I don't even know if any service even exists that can meet my needs. Currently, I have a strategy that I think is a little profitable with 1 minute data intraday swing trading on USDJPY, it's very simple and written in Pinescript. I plug the pinescript into a 1 min chart on Tradingview and it spits out alerts for my trades. The alerts are picked up by a chrome addon called Autoview which sends the orders to 1broker using a special alert API. I hate it for many reasons: - Chrome with tradingview and Autoview must be running and checked frequently for glitches (sometimes alerts stop firing randomly) - Tradingview alerts are not meant to be used as orders so I lose any semblance of order management. Basically it fires alerts/orders for every entry point regardless of my current balance or positions. - Pinescript sucks. - 1broker uses bitcoins as currency, I like bitcoins but don't fully trust putting thousands of dollars into them when it could be rendered obsolete at any time without warning. So the reason I use it is because it meets all my needs. I'm just starting out and I have a fairly large income via my job (US) but it would take me at more than a year to save up 25k for a legit daytrading account. So I need to find a broker + automation combo with the following: - hedging within the same fund (is this not allowed in the US?) - can make unlimited day trades without needing $25,000 USD, low minimum account size - low or no fees - supports 24/5 forex or E-mini trading (options not required) - API for automation with somewhat low coding requirements. I am familiar with python but by no means am I an expert. I like looking at tradingview charts and backtest instantaneously via graphical interface but I realize this is probably not very common. I've spent a lot of time on both Quantopian and Quantconnect but neither of them can do intraday trading very well if at all. They are primarily focused on fundamental trading and I'm more into technical trading. I tried looking into Ninjatrader, metatrader, whatever but I found them very expensive, unnecessarily complicated, and beholden to the US's stupid trading laws. TL;DR - Can anyone tell me exactly how to implement my simple automated intraday FX strategy using a simple interface that doesn't require me to have a $25,000 US brokerage account and software that costs 1000's of dollars? P.S. If any other beginners are in the same situation as me you should look into 1broker.com + TradingView + Autoview, it's pretty sweet given the limitations it's working with.
To the Stock sub, yes I read the wiki, I have been increasingly more interested in the financial markets and learning how to trade. I've been reading a ton on a ton, sometimes it feels like there is so much information it can start to become overwhelming. Sometimes I don't know where to start, and sometimes I don't know where to stop. This is an immense project for anyone to start, and to the people who have 'made it'(everyone has their own definition of success' I have a tremendous amount of respect for you. It seems that, day trading, intraday trading etc. are minimized to, it's basically gambling and if you dump money in the stock market you're an idiot. I once did also subscribe to that ideology and now I realize I probably should have focused on that instead of partying with friends and making some bad decisions, but the wisest of men were once the greatest of fools said a smart guy one time, I think. Anyway just some background, I am in my early 20's and am assigned as an air traffic controller in a branch of the american military. I just developed a rough 'training plan' to get myself on the right track to being fiscally adept. The reason why I am posting is to search for some wisdom from the elders, someone that will take some time to just sift through a couple of my talking points to add or subtract some of my basic ideas, and basically just guide me in the right direction. It doesn't make much sense to go into these things blindly, especially with an area of study a whole career field is designed around. I want to develop a rough map / curriculum to follow for myself, and to try to measure any indicators (no pun intended) of progress. But I am just a beginner, so why not post this on reddit? If anyone has any tips, something to add, something to subtract, that's why this is here. I'll be around to answer any questions for the next hour or so, then I can pickup tomorrow. I'm hoping we as a community can come together with something to give to a beginner like me, with this being the beginning LINK TO GOOGLE DOCS -- HAS MORE CORRECT FORMATTING https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTf0MMvFWdrvFlz_k-ruDuMABjaJEeZ5Aed07xEnEMI/edit?usp=sharing My motivation – 1. So I can give family, friends and myself a life without worry. So, we have more time to focus on building meaningful experiences and forming a strong relationship with each other. 2. If profitable enough, to donate to cancer research to hopefully one-day cure cancer, more specifically, malignant brain cancers. 3. To have financial freedom. 4. To build wealth for myself and future generations of my family, regardless if it is my own kin. 5. To challenge myself. How I am doing this? Adopting a mix of education, research and simulated training I hope that by the end of CY18 I can have a small account funded 1500-3000 for trading while also focusing on paying down debt. Education and Research: Reading List 1. Security Analysis – a. To gain a fundamental basis to judge a stocks worth, it has great reviews and has been recommended on multiple different platforms as a must read, so I am must reading it b. This book will not relate to the trading strategy that will be adopted in the beginning to build greater wealth. However, I think this will become a staple of future trading strategies. This book is basically the polar opposite to speculative trading/investment which will comprise the trading the trading strategy used to develop the wealth needed to reach the 25k minimum needed to day trade. 2. Japanese candlestick charting techniques (JCCT)-- a. This book is allegedly a great source on learning candlestick patterns and learning technical analysis. b. The focus will be learning how to read charts quick and effectively, allowing me to draw reasonable and insightful conclusions on the potential movement on stock based on its price-action 3. Will add more to the list after I finish these, but as of now I have determined learning a mix between fundamental & technical analysis will keep me well rounded so I don’t tunnel vision one way of trading. The aim is to remain well rounded and not to rely on one skill too much. Online resources – 1. Youtube a. Ricky Gutierrez – stocks b. Timothy Sykes – stocks c. The Duomo initiative – Forex d. Numerous other youtube sources 2. Babypips – Forex 3. Lehman Brothers “Foreign Exchange Training Manual” (Dekstop) 4. Reddit? 5. Will add more as they come Simulation— 1. Tradingview.com a. Good charts, great indicators, free ‘real-time’ data and awesome charting features available as well as an easy to use papertrading, seems like a good resource for FOREX/STOCKS b. 2. TD Ameritrades ThinkOrSwim (TOS) a. 60 day Demo account that I called and got real-time data, the closest thing to a real deal trading platform I can get my hands. Will probably keep trying to learn this and use it as my basis for learning how to execute trades in the FOREX and Equity Markets. b. When the demo account runs out, make a new one, call and get live data set to the account again 3. The criteria used for the trading software a. Don’t make a lot of trades, I want to focus on only taking trades based on as much calculated risk as I can possibly calculate b. Trade around the pattern day trader rule, as when it’s time to go live I want to be used to it. What this means for me, is only take 1 or 2 trades a week, and making them meaningful. c. Try to learn something from every trade I make, failure or success I want to know if it’s pure luck or calculated risk. i. IF it’s a failure, I want to analyze why it happened to the best of my ability. ii. If it’s a success, I want to analyze how it happened and try to really solidify the knowledge. d. Try to imagine the money in the paper trading account is as real as the money in my pocket. e. Don’t rush or force trades, wait for a good “set-up” or situation. Stick to my technical analysis tools/skills and adapt to changing situations based on news releases. Training— 1. Read at least 30 minutes each day of either Security Analysis or JCCT 2. Use youtube, babypips, reddit or some other online resource to learn SOMETHING that day. I don’t care if I am rereading the Relative Strength Indicator equation, I will do some form of online research and make it meaningful or impactful in some way. 3. Using a simulation platform, most likely TOS, develop a strategy for taking trades during the week. Live by the criteria I set for myself. a. Use each blown up paper account as lesson. b. Stay focused and don’t get emotional c. Rome wasn’t built in a day. d. Go live when I win more than I lose, and am green for 4 months. 4. Don’t forget who I’m doing this for and why. To-Do list – 1. Compile a list of terms, phrases, vocabulary and indicators to define/research and call it homework 2. Find or develop a good trading journal that is designed around a specific strategy, and before I enter into any trade I can fill it in this journal and if it meets criteria it’s time to buy. 3. Make myself some form of “homework” at-least once a week and learn from it. 4. If everything works out remain humble and try to help others succeed also. Summary – The goal is through a mix of, foundational reading (Security Analysis, JCCT and others), online resources, and simulated trading I can go from someone with very low to almost no knowledge of financial markets to a profitable and successful trader in the next 6-24 months. Using realistic and measurable goals to gauge progress (how many books have I read since I set the curriculum? How am I doing papertrading? Am I staying focused? Am I too focused?) as well as always constantly reforming and changing the training plan to grow with me I think this is possible.
I've been reading a little about forex in the past couple weeks, and as a software engineer, I find it appealing that it can be conducted almost entirely via technical analysis (i.e. it's work a computer can do, unlike fundamentals). A lot of folks on here and around the web have talked about their robo-trading, so I figured one of the best ways for me to learn more would be to write an app and experiment with a test account. Before that, though, I spent ten minutes writing a simulation to test out some of my assumptions, and see if the math checks out. I'm sure most of this will be cleared up with practical experience, but I thought I'd quickly ask for a second opinion before spending days (and hundreds/thousands of lines of code) on the problem. My plan, tentatively, is to do some automated range trading during Asian hours. Looking at a couple USD/EUR charts to get a feel for how quickly things move, I plugged these values into my "simulation."
Starting capital: $10,000
Target profit ratio: 2-to-1 (e.g. target 10 pips up or 5 pips down... let winners ride, cut losses)
Simultaneous positions: 3
Expected trade duration: 90-120 minutes
Trading window: 8 hours
With three concurrent positions open and each of them lasting up to two hours, that means the sim is doing ~12 trades per 8-hour day. Targeting a 2:1 profit ratio, that means only 33% of the trades need to be correct in order to break even. If I set it to 35% it makes a tidy profit, and if I crank it up to 50% things start to get a little obscene. This is all math, but I'm better with an IDE than I am with a calculator. And of course, none of this gets into how to determine where the ranges are -- that's a problem I'll try to solve while writing the actual app. Before I start writing code... what in there looks totally out of whack? What am I not taking into account? I don't consider the numbers coming out of this shitty little mini-program worthwhile, but it was a fun little experiment, and I found myself curious whether any of it was realistic, or if it needed to be significantly reconfigured. Thanks for any advice.
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All you have to know the instructions to follow with this Super Profit Scalper. *Step 1: pop upOpen the trading chart of your choice. *Step 2: Choose your timeframe: M1 or M5. *Step 3: Purple Line – Buy or Yellow Line – Sell. *Step 4: Exit when the line changes color. *Step 5: Profit.
Fisher App Review 2015 - Is Fisher App SCAM Or LEGIT? Binary Options Trading Signals System. Fisher Method By Jacob Clark Review
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[$500-$1000 USD][USA]Laptop For Live Market Trading With Many Windows Open.
I've been here in the past and I've refined my needs.
Total budget and country of purchase:
$500-$1,000 USD. USA.
Do you prefer a 2 in 1 form factor, good battery life or best specifications to your requirements for the money? Pick or include any that apply.
Fast. Best Specs.
How important is weight to you?
Which OS do you require? Windows, Linux, Mac.
Do you have a preferred screen size? If indifferent, put N/A.
Are you doing any CAD/video editing/photo editing/gaming? List which programs/games you desire to run. If you have no requirements, put N/A.
Live Stocks, Futures, Options, Forex Trading. Ton's of analysis and windows
MTI's Ultimate Charting Software
Basically a laptop that can run a photo-editing software or a programming laptop.
If you're gaming (leave blank if you put N/A above...), do you have certain games you want to play? At what settings and FPS do you want?
Any specific requirements such as good keyboard, reliable business grade build quality, touch-screen, finger-print reader, optical drive or good input devices (keyboard/touchpad)?
HDMI and VGA ports
Able to connect up to 2 external monitors or more
Reliable build quality
Leave any finishing thoughts here that you may feel are necessary and beneficial to the discussion.
My current laptop takes 2 minutes to cold boot up and another 1 minute to fully load up when it gets to my desktop. Programs take up to 30-60 seconds to load up. My charting software takes ~30 seconds to load each workspace and it is very choppy.
The fans go full-blast all the time. Everything else is fine. It is just very slow and very loud. And very hot.
I don't know much about tech. I'm happy with a fast, reliable laptop. Everything else is just extra bling.
Hi all, I am Jester, I am from Belgium and wanted to share my project with everybody. I have been working on it for over a month now, and it is in the final stages of development. The main idea is to provide altcoin traders with an intuitive trading platform that gives them more insight in the different altcoin markets on the main altcoin exchanges. (Cryptsy, Mintpal, Poloniex) I did some trading on Cryptsy and what bothered me was the lack of actual live charts, detailed market information and cumbersome trading.
The candlestick charts only refreshes every 5 minutes
Refreshing the browser is often necessary to get the latest market information
There is no good overall market overview
Users have to open several browser windows to trade multiple markets at the same time
Poor to no automatic trading functionality
I decided to create a winforms application to tackle these issues. It started out as a hobby project as I thought it would be nice to chart the 6 hour price evolution of all the altcoins. Soon after I added a simple trade panel based on forex trading platforms so that I could instantly place an order, instead of refreshing the browser for the latest price, entering the amount clicking the buy/sell buttons and confirm the transaction, which seemed rather cumbersome to me. As the project evolved, I decided to add detailed charts using the Zedgraph library (http://sourceforge.net/projects/zedgraph/). A couple of weeks ago I was looking for similar projects online and discovered C.A.T bot by Sampey. I registered on this forum to follow the interactions and I decided to code some bot functions in my application too. At the moment, the application is a bit of a hybrid between trading platform and bot. From a trader's perspective, I think you can still earn a lot more by executing your trades manually, but I understand that for most people this would take up a lot of their time, so a trade bot is a handy add-on if you set it up well. Currently, one static trade bot and 3 dynamic trade bots have been implemented. The functionality is explained on the website: http://altcoinsniper.com/advancedversion.html I plan on adding a bit of code in the future that compiles a text file from the user while the application is running, so users will be able to write their own automatic trading algorithms using the variables in the source code. (there's some screenshots of the bot code on the website, the plan is to open this up for users, so they can write their own logic) I know the cryptocurrency community is all about open source, and I know it is selfish and some people may think its sketchy, but I don't like to make this application open source for now. I can guarantee everyone though, that I did not put in all the work to spread malicious software or to steal everyone's API keys. I just feel like I put a lot of work in the application and it would be awesome if I could get some BTC for it in return. To me it seems better to enter the bitcoin ecosystem by selling creativity and passions instead of converting fiat currency. I don't know what is expensive for most altcoin traders, but I see that most other bots or cryptocurrency trading platforms sell for about 0.7-0.9 BTC. I decided to offer the basic functionality of my application for free, and the advanced trade panels and bots for 0.5 BTC. The bot logic is in c# and I added screenshots on the website, so you can decide for yourself if it is worth 0.5 BTC or not. I am always open to suggestions and improvements to the logic as these are the first auto-trading algorithms I coded. I have done some test running of the bots though and got the following results: mzc (buy low /sell high -algorithm) sell buy 4/18/2014 15:16 100 0.00000146 0.000145562 4/18/2014 15:13 100 0.00000142 0.000142284 4/18/2014 15:34 100 0.00000151 0.000150547 4/18/2014 15:29 100 0.00000148 0.000148296 4/18/2014 15:56 100 0.00000162 0.000161514 4/18/2014 15:51 100 0.00000161 0.000161322 4/18/2014 16:03 100 0.00000167 0.000166499 4/18/2014 16:01 100 0.00000156 0.000156312 flt (buy low /sell high -algorithm) sell buy 4/18/2014 15:13 100 0.00002201 0.002195498 4/18/2014 15:10 100 0.00002147 0.002152368 4/18/2014 15:51 100 0.000023 0.00229425 4/18/2014 15:13 100 0.00002253 0.002258633 4/18/2014 15:56 100 0.00002333 0.002327168 4/18/2014 15:51 100 0.000023 0.00230575 4/18/2014 16:05 100 0.00002351 0.002345123 4/18/2014 15:57 100 0.00002331 0.002336828 4/18/2014 16:10 100 0.00002442 0.002435895 4/18/2014 16:07 100 0.00002333 0.002338833 4/18/2014 16:39 100 0.00002421 0.002414948 4/18/2014 16:11 100 0.000024 0.002406 4/18/2014 16:53 100 0.0000252 0.0025137 4/18/2014 16:46 100 0.000025 0.00250625 4/18/2014 16:55 100 0.00002595 0.002588513 4/18/2014 16:54 100 0.00002525 0.002531313 4/18/2014 17:38 100 0.00002606 0.002599485 4/18/2014 16:56 100 0.0000259 0.002596475 bc (buy low /sell high -algorithm) sell buy 4/18/2014 15:45 100 0.00038501 0.038385497 4/18/2014 15:09 100 0.00038 0.038076 4/18/2014 17:14 100 0.00039 0.038883 4/18/2014 15:49 100 0.00038799 0.038876598 4/18/2014 17:16 100 0.000388 0.0386836 4/18/2014 17:15 100 0.00038601 0.038678202 4/18/2014 17:36 100 0.000391 0.0389827 4/18/2014 17:17 100 0.000389 0.0389778 4/18/2014 17:55 100 0.00039209 0.039091373 4/18/2014 17:38 100 0.00039 0.039078 4/18/2014 18:11 100 0.00039495 0.039376515 4/18/2014 18:01 100 0.00039265 0.03934353 bc (trend-algorithm) sell buy 4/18/2014 15:44 100 0.000385 0.0383845 4/18/2014 15:15 100 0.00037878 0.037953756 4/18/2014 17:36 100 0.000392 0.0390824 4/18/2014 15:45 100 0.00038997 0.039074994 4/18/2014 18:11 100 0.00039495 0.039376515 4/18/2014 17:36 100 0.00039296 0.039374592 This is how it looks in the application: http://altcoinsniper.com/images/trading.JPG More info on the bots and the trade panel is on the website. (www.altcoinsniper.com) It is possible to simulate trading and test run your bot settings. Currently, only Cryptsy is fully implemented, but if there is a lot of interest in the platform, I will work on implementing other exchanges. If you have any questions, suggestions or feedback, feel free to respond on this post or contact me at [email protected]
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